A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
